Breaking down Mitch Marner's move to Vegas

Looking at this offseason's biggest addition

July 1 this year was an all-time clunker.

The chaos that usually defines the beginning of NHL free agency was absent. The Florida Panthers’ big three of Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett all opted to stay in Sunrise. Brock Boeser decided to stay in Vancouver. Nikolaj Ehlers, suddenly the belle of the ball in the free agency market, has decided to take his time before making a decision.

All of that meant the biggest signing of the day for a player who actually changed teams as an unrestricted free agent was Vladislav Gavrikov, who signed a seven-year deal worth $7 million per year. Thrilling stuff.

Much of the drama around July 1 this year was removed when Mitch Marner headed to Vegas from Toronto in a sign-and-trade. Marner inked an eight-year deal worth $12 million per year, and the Maple Leafs picked up Nicolas Roy in return.

Vegas once again landed its big fish, while Toronto is making somewhat of a clean break from the Core Four era. The Golden Knights are hoping that this enough to push them over the top once again.

Vegas again snatching elite talent

There’s a reason why this move is such a big deal for both teams: talents like Mitch Marner don’t hit free agency very often.

Since becoming a full-time NHL player in the 2016-17 season, Marner is eighth in points with 741 in 657 games. Marner is coming off his first 100-point season after finishing in the 90s three times previously.

Marner is the best of both worlds: he’s an elite playmaker at fives and is a weapon on the power play. Does Vegas need help on either of those ends? Not really, considering that the Golden Knights were one of the highest-scoring teams in the league last year and had a lethal power play, but sometimes it doesn’t hurt to add more gas to a roaring fire.

At five-on-five, Marner’s passing ability is among the best in the league. Since he entered the NHL, the only player with more primary assists per 60 minutes than Marner (1.17) is the one and only Connor McDavid (1.21). Marner isn’t simply picking up secondary assists from just happening to be on the ice at the same time as Auston Matthews; he was a critical part of what made Toronto’s offense click.

With Marner on the ice, the Maple Leafs regularly tilted the ice in their favor. Between Marner’s playmaking abilities and Matthews’ finishing, they regularly outpaced their expected goals and dominated on the scoreboard. Toronto had a double-digit on-ice shooting percentage with Marner on the ice in all but two of his seasons with the team, and the Maple Leafs have outscored their opponents 182-120 at five-on-five in the last three seasons.

It’s a similar story on the power play. He’s fourth in the league in power play points per 60 minutes since entering the league. Combine the electric offense with passable defense, and you have one of the more valuable forwards in the league. By Evolving-Hockey’s Standing Points Above Replacement metric, he’s 10th since he came into the NHL at 47.5. That gives Vegas two players in the top 10 in that span, as Mark Stone is the other in eighth.

The playoffs problem

But those are all regular-season metrics. If that’s all that mattered, well, Marner probably wouldn’t even be in Vegas to start with.

Marner’s Maple Leafs had a long history of falling short in the postseason over and over again. The antidote for that, for Marner at least, is to surround himself with another star-studded cast. This time, however, it’s with a group that knows what it takes to win it all, and he doesn’t have to deal with the pressure cooker that is the Toronto hockey media market.

All of that begs the question: just how bad is Marner in the playoffs?

Nobody is going to confuse Marner for Sam Bennett, but maybe it’s not as bad as some might think.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: the point totals aren’t pretty. Despite being an elite producer at five-on-five in the regular season, that tends to decline in the playoffs. Marner has just 10 points at five-on-five in his last two playoff runs (20 games). He’s scored at least 2.5 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five in each of the last five regular seasons, but he’s only eclipsed that mark in the playoffs once in that span.

Trying to make sense of playoff production is a little tricky because of the combination of small sample sizes and the randomness of the sport of hockey. Poor play can contribute to said small sample size, which compounds the problem.

Marner’s xGF/60 tends to drop in the playoffs, but his xGA/60 improves in the postseason as well. Players scoring at a lower level in the playoffs isn’t anything new — just ask Alex Ovechkin. You’re a playoff choker until you’re finally not. Phil Kessel wasn’t a winner for a long time until he suddenly was. Same with Ovechkin.

With all that in mind, Toronto generally did decently well in Marner’s playoff minutes. The Leafs haven’t been outscored in the playoffs with Marner on the ice at five-on-five since the bubble, and they have had the expected goals edge in virtually every playoff run.

Where the Core Four teams have fallen short in the postseason is on the power play and further down the lineup, both of which Marner has a little bit of responsibility for. The Leafs’ power play ranks 18th at 17.8 percent in the playoffs in the last four years, and Marner obviously plays a part in that. And while Marner wasn’t in Toronto’s bottom six, his contract helped restrict what the Leafs could spend to shore up their depth.

With Marner off the ice, Toronto has gotten worked. In the last three playoff runs, Toronto had a 45.8% xGF% and was outscored 36-48 at five-on-five without Marner. In an effort get bigger, tougher and “harder to play against,” the Leafs left the stars out to dry instead.

How will this work out?

Adding Marner didn’t come without a cost. In addition to trading away a depth piece in Roy, Vegas made this work with the salary cap now that defenseman Alex Pietrangelo’s career is likely over due to injury. It’s a tough blow to Vegas’ blueline, and it’s likely going to mean more on Shea Theodore and Noah Hanifin’s shoulders.

Vegas might have to do some more finagling, even with Pietrangelo on LTIR. The Golden Knights have 21 of 23 players under contract, but they’re over $1.2 million over the cap after re-signing Kaedan Korczak, according to CapWages. It’s interesting that seemingly the fix for the Golden Knights was to add to their stockpile of weapons up front instead of searching for more defensive options, but there also weren’t a ton of candidates on the blueline once Ekblad re-upped in Florida.

Marner is leaving one all-world center for another all-world center. After a five-game series loss to Edmonton where Vegas looked outmatched, the Golden Knights have added more offensive punch. And if Marner can finally shed his playoff demons in a new environment, then Vegas will tough to beat in the West next spring.